Nuclear Winter First Strike Read online

  Hank helped one of the Coast Guard vessels pull alongside. He worked with the guardsman to place the fenders between the two boats before tying them together. The young man quickly boarded Hank’s boat and immediately approached Erin without so much as a glance in Hank’s direction.

  “Ma’am,” he began with a tip of his cap, “we’ve been sent by the Secret Service. You’ve been requested to return to Washington.”

  “Wait? Secret Service. Why?”

  The young guardsman glanced at Hank. “I can only speculate, ma’am. There have been some developments between India and Pakistan. Um, similar to the Middle East, only worse, ma’am.”

  “Shit,” Erin muttered. She closed her eyes and shook her head in disbelief. She walked past the guardsman and hugged Hank.

  “It’ll be okay,” he whispered in her ear, not sure what else to say. His mind was also racing, as the information given to him by Peter was deadly accurate.

  “Hank, I’m so sorry to leave you. All of this. You’re an incredible man.”

  “I feel the same way, Erin. Please keep in touch.”

  “I will,” she said as she kissed him on the cheek. Then she leaned in to whisper in his ear, “Be ready. Protect yourself and your family. You never know, okay?”

  She pulled away, and Hank saw the tears begin to flow out of her eyes. She tried to wipe them away and shield her emotions from the guardsman who stood dutifully nearby. Without another word, she crossed over into the Coast Guard Defender. As they uncoupled and raced off, she never stopped looking at Hank, nor did he stop looking at her as the boat disappeared from sight.

  Chapter Thirty

  Tuesday, October 22

  Presidential Emergency Operations Center

  The White House

  For the second time in a week, the president had been ushered through the corridors beneath the East Wing of the White House into the PEOC. Unlike the moments following the Iran-Israel nuclear exchange, during which the attendees were relatively calm, the military and intelligence personnel didn’t bother acknowledging President Helton as he entered. The nuclear war between Pakistan and India was far more serious and was still ongoing.

  “Mr. President, thus far, all indications lead us to believe this conflict is regional in nature,” began the president’s chief of staff. “State has spoken with their counterparts in Moscow and Beijing, who both agree all three nuclear powers should remain neutral.”

  “That’s easy for them to say,” shot back the president. “They’re responsible for arming Iran and Pakistan in the first place. Everyone might note who the aggressors are in all of this. It’s not our allies.”

  Harrison Chandler, who as the president’s chief of staff was anything but a yes-man, provided some context. “Sir, I’m not defending their actions. That said, both Israeli and Indian provocations caused tensions to escalate. Do I believe the Pakistanis and Iranians are blameless? Absolutely not. Now we have to be prepared for the aftermath.”

  The president turned to the secretary of defense, who was present in the PEOC’s large conference room. He was on the phone, but President Helton interrupted him.

  “You’ve raised the defense readiness condition?”

  In the event of a national emergency, a series of seven different alert conditions, known as LERTCONs, can be issued. The seven alerts include two emergency conditions, or EMERGCONs, that are national-level reactions in response to an attack on the U.S. mainland from foreign intercontinental ballistic missiles. In the event of a major attack on American or allied forces overseas, the defense emergency levels are elevated under EMERGCON. Likewise, if an air defense emergency exists, such as hostile aircraft or inbound conventional missiles were considered imminent, then the EMERGCON levels were raised.

  The other five alert levels fall under national defense readiness conditions, or DEFCONs, a term more widely known among the general public. These levels start at DEFCON 5, which is normal peacetime conditions, up to DEFCON 1, the maximum force readiness that coincides with EMERGCON alerts.

  In the history of the United States, DEFCON 1 had never been initiated. During the Cuban missile crisis, the U.S. Strategic Air Command was placed on DEFCON 2 for the first time, without President Kennedy’s authority. The action almost triggered a nuclear war that October.

  With each passing day during that crisis, the U.S. military inched toward war as it prepared to strike targets within the former Soviet Union. The world held its collective breath during those days in October 1962.

  “Mr. President, at the moment, we have no indication of a direct threat to the U.S. or our military installations abroad. Therefore, we have remained at DEFCON 3, as you instructed following the Iranian attack on Israel and their counterattack.”

  The president turned toward the undersecretary of state. “Are you able to contact either government? I assume both capitals were targeted.”

  “Yes, sir,” the undersecretary responded. “Devastatingly so. We’ve reached out to our counterparts in China and Russia, as you know, seeking a means of gathering information about the Pakistani government. The Russians are close to the New Delhi government, as are the French. Nobody has received confirmation as to the status of either heads of state or their parliaments.”

  “I might add, Mr. President,” began the defense secretary, “someone must be in charge because there are continuing targeted strikes on both sides of the border. It appears, incredibly, that they intend to empty their respective nuclear vaults.”

  The president remained standing throughout. He dropped his chin to his chest as he contemplated the deaths of millions of innocent people, none of whom asked to be embroiled in all-out nuclear war. He finally looked up to his advisors.

  “Have they all gone batshit crazy?”

  His question was crassly worded but clearly understood.

  “Mr. President, tensions have been festering—” began the undersecretary of state before the president cut him off.

  “No, I get that. I’m talking about all of these rogue nations who have their fingers on the nuclear triggers. Who’s next? Is it like a damned lunacy epidemic? Is Kim Jong Un the next maniacal despot to fire off nukes?”

  The undersecretary of state really didn’t want to answer the question, but the president’s stare had him locked in his sights. “Well, sir, the only rogue nation by U.S. diplomatic definition is North Korea. If you are looking for some kind of pattern from these two events, there’s no indication either South Korea or our allies in Tokyo would dare initiate military hostilities with the DPRK, especially under these circumstances.”

  The president, who was generally forthcoming about his weaknesses, especially as it related to foreign policy, repeated the criticisms by the war hawks of his response to the Iranian-Israeli conflict.

  “Let’s say my friends across the aisle were right, and my failure to stand by Israel was seen as a sign of weakness across the globe. Might this have emboldened India to launch the airstrikes and Pakistan to counter with nukes? Maybe. Both sides have seen us as all talk and no action, standing down when our allies were in need. Therefore, they took advantage of the chaos in the Middle East to make their move.”

  The undersecretary of state squirmed in his chair, but to his credit, he continued in an honest assessment of the president’s stance, how it was perceived, and how it might relate to North Korea.

  “Sir, I’m going to respond this way with a caveat. I don’t speak for the secretary of state. However, I believe our assessment of the North Korea situation is closely aligned.”

  “Understood,” said the president, who took his seat at the head of the table for the first time.

  The undersecretary explained, “When North Korea reneged on its promise to forgo nuclear weapons in the early 1990s, the Clinton administration put together an accord deemed the Agreed Framework that paved Pyongyang’s path to nuclearization. Kim Jong-il withdrew from this Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2003, confirming that he intended to build a nuclear w
eapon.

  “President George W. Bush pushed for the China-led six-party talks with North Korea that yielded no agreement. When North Korea tested its second nuclear weapon in 2009, President Obama opted for a strategic patience approach. This policy led to an expansion of the North Korean nuclear program, and three subsequent tests showed just how misguided these approaches have been.”

  The undersecretary paused and caught his breath. He gulped before he stated his opinion. “Mr. President, it’s time to acknowledge that North Korea has never been interested in negotiating away its nuclear deterrent. Their goals have always been to bide time, get sanctions removed, or even secure humanitarian aid from the West.

  “Of course, we should continue to leave the door open for serious discussions if the situation changes. However, sir, in my opinion, our government does our citizens and the world a disservice if we continually discount the central threat of the DPRK’s nuclear weapons to the stability of the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and our western shores.”

  President Helton studied the undersecretary, a young man compared to the elderly military personnel in the room. He was anxious to learn more from him, but an aide had rushed into the room.

  “We’ve made contact with the prime minister of India.”

  Chapter Thirty-One

  Tuesday, October 22

  U.S. State Department

  Washington, DC

  Peter had been rushing up and down the halls of the State Department since the news broke about ballistic missiles sailing across the South Asia subcontinent. He raced out of his condo and made it to Foggy Bottom in record time, faster than other journalists assigned to State could ride their subway trains.

  The story, and the administration’s response, was certainly foremost on his mind. However, he’d begun to get a nagging feeling that the president, and even the secretary of state, were focused on another nuclear-equipped bad actor, North Korea.

  Amidst the chaos in the corridors of the Harry S. Truman Building, Peter hoped to catch a State Department official with his guard down. With the right set of loose lips, they might provide some insight into the Helton administration’s North Korea policy. His ploy worked.

  He’d cornered a harried aide to the undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security. The two retreated to her office, where she began to reveal everything she knew. As the conversation began, Peter learned the president had set up a secret task force designed to bypass the intelligence watchdogs and the media. Their purpose was to study the means and justification for attacking North Korea with a first strike.

  A preemptive nuclear first strike meant a lot more than being equated with the first ballistic missile to be launched, as had been the case in Iran and Pakistan. Both of those nuclear attacks were ostensibly in response to prior provocations, although most would argue a nuclear response was quite an overreaction.

  A first strike was designed to apply overwhelming force against a nuclear-capable enemy with the goal of defeating them by destroying their nuclear arsenal. By doing so, the enemy would be unable to continue with nuclear threats of their own. Targets would focus on missile silos, submarine bases, and other military installations like command-and-control sites. The counterforce strategy had never been employed using nuclear warfare.

  No nation had undertaken a first strike although some argue the U.S. attack on Hiroshima fell under the definition. Contrarians argued the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were designed to end a war, not to avoid or start one. President Kennedy had been urged to initiate a first strike at the Soviet Union during the Cuban Missile Crisis, but cooler heads prevailed.

  Peter’s conversation with the analyst provided him tremendous insight. He probed further with his questioning after his initial success. “Where do they meet?”

  “The building where I used to work before coming on board at State. The one with five sides.” She was referring to the Pentagon.

  “And the president used an executive order to set it up?”

  “Yes. It’s kept hidden from public view on national security grounds. That’s not unusual. What is unusual is the task force’s lack of normal procedures and accountability. They don’t even have to report to Congress.”

  “Wow,” muttered Peter. He thought for a moment, and then he asked, “Have they issued any suggestions?”

  “Oh yeah,” she replied. “That’s why all of this business in South Asia and the Middle East has me concerned. Even before today’s attack, they’d made up their minds, and they’ve advised the president on their recommended course of action.”

  “Which is?”

  “A nuclear first strike on the DPRK.”

  Peter sat back in his chair. The rumors were true. There was something between the president and North Korea, an issue that might never be made public. Regardless, he’d established a task force to give him political cover.

  He asked a pointed question. “Are they creating intelligence to justify nuking Kim?” It was the kind of conspiratorial question that would get him thrown out of a press briefing. He doubted the aide would answer.

  “Yes.”

  So much for that. He leaned forward.

  “Even though the Chicoms might fire back?”

  She nodded in response. “The task force believes it can strategically pinpoint targets to take out Kim’s capabilities while minimizing loss of life to the North Korean people. The task force, and the president, I’m told, firmly believes the surgical first strike will be palatable to Beijing, who has been fed up with Kim’s independence of late.”

  “What will be the justification?” asked Peter.

  “They will manufacture intelligence, with the assistance of our Far East allies, proving Kim’s intentions to fire upon Seoul and Tokyo.”

  Peter sighed. He shook his head in disbelief as he imagined the political machinations that took place in the dark recesses of DC.

  While Peter paused, she added another thought. “There’s more. The task force believes the North Korean people would be better off.”

  “Of course,” said Peter. “With the Kim dynasty taken out, South and North can unify.”

  “That’s not what I mean. China wants the territory. Supposedly, just rumor, a back channel has been established between Beijing and the task force, indicating they might be on board with such an operation. It solves a problem for both sides.”

  “Can they be trusted? Think about it for a moment. We’re revealing our plans to nuke North Korea to their biggest ally and one of our deadliest enemies.”

  She shrugged.

  Peter continued with his questioning. “How far along are these discussions? I mean, is something imminent in light of what’s happening in South Asia?”

  “Maybe. Maybe not. The president is reportedly warming to the concept of a first strike. He wants to believe the Chinese are on board.”

  Peter sat in amazement as to the aide’s blunt honesty. He also contemplated what all of this meant. He had one more question. “What if the task force is wrong?”

  “About …?” she asked, her voice trailing off, as she was unsure what part of the conversation he was referring to.”

  “The Chinese. What if they aren’t on board and retaliate?”

  Her response was blunt, and her calm demeanor was chilling. “Now, that would suck for us, wouldn’t it?”

  Chapter Thirty-Two

  Tuesday, October 22

  Hayward, California

  “So do you guys have the Disaster Alert app installed on your phones?” asked Tucker as they gathered in the kitchen. Each member of the McDowell family had a different way to kick-start their day. Owen needed his coffee, black with a couple of sugars. Lacey wasn’t a coffee drinker, opting instead for a healthy, fruit-filled smoothie. Tucker ate whatever leftovers existed in the refrigerator, or an energy bar. “Everybody at school got a text blast from the school, encouraging us to download it. It covers all kinds of stuff like bad weather, active-shooter situations, and nuclear attacks. I
think that’s the real reason.”

  “It came pre-installed on my phone,” replied his dad. He glanced over at Lacey, who was preoccupied with the imagery displayed on the television. The ongoing nuclear attacks between Pakistan and India seemed to affect her more than the exchange in the Middle East. “What about you, sweetheart?”

  “What?” Owen’s question grabbed her attention away from the news reports.

  “The disaster app, Mom. The government is urging everyone to download it. The school messaged me about it.”

  “Oh,” she mumbled. She walked over to her phone and mindlessly studied it. After a moment, she handed it to her son. “Will you do it for me, Tucker?”

  As Tucker went to the App Store and located the download, Lacey wandered out of the kitchen into the family room. She located the remote and turned up the volume.

  Owen talked to his son in a lowered voice. “Your mom said she planned on keeping you out of school today. All of this seems to have hit her hard, and I get her concern. However, I don’t like unexcused absences.”

  Tucker completed the download and placed her phone back on the counter where it had been previously. “Dad, I’m way ahead this semester. It’s the middle of the week, so there aren’t any quizzes or anything. I can get one of the guys to fill me in on what I might’ve missed.”

  “Will you keep a close eye on her today? You know, stay with her.”

  “Sure, okay. But, Dad, she’s not going crazy. Uncle Peter seems to think this is the start of something bigger. Don’t you agree?”

  “Your uncle Peter knows a lot more than I do about these things, but I try to apply common sense. The last thing our country needs is a nuclear war. I can’t imagine any president getting us involved in one.”

  “Did anyone imagine they’d drop those bombs on Japan during World War Two?” asked Tucker.